Market Data

Our January report focused mostly on 2020’s annual statistics. This report will put most of its attention on quarterly and monthly indicators, which better illustrate changes occurring as 2020 progressed and 2021 began. 

The 2 tables below reflect market statistics and values for Q4 2020 only, which will often be different than those for the full year 2020. Median sales values can fluctuate for a number of reasons, and are especially prone to do so in markets with low sales volumes and high prices. 

Generally low inventory levels of listings on the market over the past year played a large role in the heat of the market. Listing activity has simply not kept pace with buyer demand. 

Month by month, year-over-year comparison of home sales volumes - illustrating the initial pandemic crash in activity followed by the market rebound that saw monthly sales volumes climb far above the levels of the previous year. 

The next chart compares the year-over-year changes in sales of homes selling for over and under $3 million. Sales in the higher price segment saw a very substantial jump, while sales under $3 million saw a much smaller increase. However, neither statistic really does justice to the rapid acceleration in market activity occurring in the second half of the year.

Luxury home sales by city and price segment: 

Two classic indicators of supply and demand: 

Below is the first table of a full-year 2020 home value analysis of markets around the Bay Area, ranked by median sales price, highest to lowest. Marin is well represented at the top of the list. The full ranking list and home price map are here: Bay Area 2020 Home Prices.  

Two of the factors behind the housing market recovery were the dramatic drop in interest rates, and the significant rebound in the stock market - especially of some of our local high-tech giants. 

Though Covid-19 upended many normal seasonal trends this year, the market did begin its typical “holiday season” slowdown in November - however activity remained well above levels of last year. It is unknown how the latest pandemic circumstances may affect the market in December, which is usually by far the slowest month of the year. 

Below is a survey of Q3 2020 median home prices around the Bay Area. 

Highest priced listings on the market in early November, and the highest priced MLS home sales occurring May through October 2020, by Bay Area County. 

As is typical, the number of new listings plunged in November. In the first week of December - not illustrated on this chart - new listing activity ticked back up from the short Thanksgiving week, but remained well below pre-November numbers. December is usually the month with the fewest new listings coming on market.  

A major factor in the Marin market has been the relatively low number of active listings available for purchase. 

Market activity as measured by the number of listings going into contract, though dropping in November - as is the normal seasonal trend - was significantly higher on a year-over-year basis: 37% higher than in November 2019.  

A standard measure of supply and demand, months-supply-of-inventory has been bumping along at extremely low levels in recent months. 

A stronger, higher demand market = fewer price reductions. 

Marin County has seen one of the highest year-over-year increases in dollar volume sales, exceeded only by Napa and Monterey Counties. 

4 charts and tables on the Marin County and Bay Area luxury home markets. Most counties have seen an explosion of demand for big homes in exclusive locations. Sales volumes in several counties would certainly have been higher if not for the terrible fires. 

Annual median sales prices for houses of 5+ bedrooms, 3+ baths, 3500+ square feet in the more expensive communities of the 4 most expensive counties. 

If you're looking for a home priced $5 million and above, these are the places where you will have the greatest choice of listings. In Marin, most of the highest priced markets are quite small as measured by the number of listings and sales. 

The long-term median sales price chart below is similar to those for counties around the Bay Area - a significant spike in median house prices since the pandemic struck in early spring. However, Marin has seen a more dramatic increase than most. 

The market typically starts a big slowdown in mid-November, running through the mid-winter holidays, until it begins to wake up in mid-January: New listings and sales plummet, and listings pulled off the market soar. Higher-price segments normally see the most dramatic plunges in mid-winter activity. 

Following is a series of analyses that look at city median sales prices, luxury home sales, listings for sale, and a few standard measurements of supply and demand. Note that very expensive homes often see softer dynamics - the pool of buyers is much smaller, and overpricing more common for these very special properties - but this is not always the case. 

Regarding the next chart: Percentages of 50% or more would typically be considered to reflect a high-demand market. Over 60% signifies very high demand, or as it climbs, extremely high demand. As mentioned before, very high price markets often, but not always, see softer supply and demand indicators.